Our Q2 2026 Executive Outlook for the UK and Europe highlighted how the fragile return to stability of the first months of the years have now been disrupted by renewed geopolitical shock. In this environment, executive markets are not moving in unison.
Here we turn to the United States, Asia and the Middle East and North Africa, with each responding differently to the same global pressures, creating a more complex and uneven landscape for senior leadership.
The conflict that erupted at the end of February has compounded pressures already building across all three. For the US, it adds an inflationary layer to an economy already slowed by tariffs and federal retrenchment. For Asia, it raises energy costs at precisely the moment US trade friction was beginning to ease. For the Gulf, it has overturned growth forecasts entirely.
Against this backdrop, one structural trend remains constant. AI is reshaping hiring at every level, and the executive talent able to govern and capitalise on that shift remains in scarce supply. As geopolitical and economic conditions diverge, this capability is becoming the defining factor of executive value.
This insight examines how these dynamics are playing out across the US, Asia and MENA, and what they mean for executives navigating career decisions or assessing opportunities across global markets.
The US labour market entered Q2 in what JPMorgan’s chief economist described as a “low-hire, low-fire” environment. Average monthly nonfarm payroll gains stood at just 14,000 in the six months to January 2026, far below the 122,000 average recorded in 2024, with the decline in net migration identified as the main cause. Unemployment was forecast to peak at 4.5% in early 2026, with both hiring and layoff rates subdued as businesses hesitated amid erratic trade policy.
Following the Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s selective tariff regime, a blanket 10% global levy was introduced, placing sustained pressure on supply chains across multiple sectors. Transportation and warehousing alone shed 157,000 roles over the past year.
Moody’s forecasts GDP growth of 2.3% for 2026, but the distribution remains uneven. Rising customs duties are feeding through to households, stagflation risks persist and the Iran conflict makes near-term rate cuts unlikely.
At the same time, the federal workforce has been reshaped in the shadow of Trump and Elon Musk’s DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) cost reduction agenda. More than 386,000 federal employees have left government under the current administration, resulting in a net decrease of over 264,000 positions – a substantial 9% of the civil service. This has had a direct impact on consulting, advisory and government contracting sectors, while parts of the private sector have accelerated workforce optimisation.
The clearest structural signal for the executive market is the divergence between broad hiring weakness and concentrated demand for AI capability. In Q4 2025, job postings referencing AI were 134% above their 2020 baseline. By March 2026, overall postings were just 2% above it, down from 6% at the end of 2025, reflecting continuing cooling.
However, at the same time, technology companies are leading layoffs, particularly in customer service and middle management, citing automation. In 2025, 127,000 roles were cut in the sector, a trend that has continued into 2026. Across the board, 61,000 employees have already been impacted with many CEOs explicitly citing AI efficiencies as a driver, though AI-washing – using tech as a cover for reducing costs to compensate for falling margins – is real.
Whether or not executives based in the UK and Europe have an interest in seeking positions in the US, they must take note of trends over the Atlantic as the same patterns are starting to emerge more widely. Boards are asking more rigorous questions about AI governance and the pace of automation, at a time when credible leadership capability in this area remains limited.
Asia entered 2026 in relatively strong shape, with predicted growth of 5.1%. However, as with other regions, this outlook has weakened under the combined impact of softer global demand and rising energy costs linked to the Iran conflict.
China’s real GDP growth was projected at around 4.3%, with exports having proven resilient to US tariffs. However, as we move through the next quarter, higher energy costs are now feeding into production across steel, chemicals and electronics, compressing margins. Domestically, consumption slowed through 2025, fixed-asset investment contracted, and the property market remains unstable.
India had been the more compelling near-term growth story. JP Morgan projected 7.5% GDP growth for 2026, supported by rate cuts, tax measures and infrastructure projects nearing completion. However, it now faces the sharpest exposure in the region with thin reserves and heavy reliance on Middle Eastern crude making it more vulnerable to a prolonged disruption. Rising energy prices are contributing to inflationary pressure, currency weakness and downside risk to growth.
Executive demand in India remains genuinely broad-based across technology, financial services, infrastructure and consumer sectors.
Southeast Asia continues to strengthen its position within the global AI investment cycle, particularly in digital infrastructure and hardware, generating new demand for executive leadership talent.
However, it is experiencing acute stress at the most fragile end. Countries such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and Pakistan face severe fuel shortages – the Philippines declared a state of energy emergency.
The World Economic Forum noted that asymmetric energy shocks disproportionately burden import-dependent Asian economies. For executives in the region, the requirement is to navigate multiple, simultaneous pressures – US trade policy, energy volatility, China-specific risk and uneven technology adoption – across highly differentiated markets.
Even at 4.4%–4.6%, developing Asia grows at roughly five to six times the pace of Western Europe. However, the Iran conflict has introduced a meaningful downside risk to a region that was already navigating US tariff headwinds and a patchy Chinese recovery – and the countries least able to absorb an energy price shock are precisely those that had been the growth bright spots.
As recently as December 2025, MENA was among the more attractive destinations for executive talent: diversification momentum was building, tourism was growing and GCC economies were expanding trade networks with confidence. That position has changed substantially in the wake of widening conflict in the region.
GCC economies are now expected to contract by a collective 0.2% in 2026, according to ICAEW and Oxford Economics, a dramatic revision from 3.6% growth forecast just three months earlier. The broader Middle East has moved from projected growth of 3.3% to a 2.2% contraction. GCC oil sectors could decline 5.8% this year. The IEA characterised the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Thousands of flight cancellations followed airspace closures across the Gulf.
The human capital implications are as significant as the economic ones. The Gulf’s status as a destination for international executive talent, built on decades of stability and growth, has been unsettled. Analysts have described the conflict as a potential end to the narrative that the Gulf is a permanently safe destination for expatriates and investors, exposing fragility beneath the rapid transformation of recent years. Tourism arrivals are projected to fall 11–27% against a December baseline of 13% growth. Hospitality, aviation, events and retail are reversing hiring plans that were, until recently, expanding.
The executive capability most valued in MENA right now is crisis-tested operational resilience: the ability to maintain delivery under volatile conditions, manage stakeholder confidence and position organisations for recovery while preserving capital. This represents a marked shift from the transformation and diversification profiles that dominated the regional market in 2024 and early 2025.
Several themes are consistent across all three regions. AI governance has moved from a specialist function to a board-level responsibility. In the US, executive orders have required agencies to appoint chief AI officers, creating a template the private sector is mirroring. In Asia, the AI investment cycle is reshaping which markets attract capital. In MENA, diversification projects that survive the disruption will lean more heavily on technology. Executives without credible authority over how AI is deployed, governed and measured are at a structural disadvantage across all three markets.
At the same time, supply chain and geopolitical fluency are no longer niche capabilities. Tariff volatility, energy cost shocks and shifting trade alignments are intersecting in ways that require executive teams to hold complexity across multiple dimensions at once. The premium is on Executives who can make decisions under pressure, communicate them credibly and revise them without losing credibility when conditions change.
Boards are scrutinising succession pipelines, interim leadership arrangements and transformation capability below the C-suite. Executives who can demonstrate quantified delivery in constrained or restructuring are increasingly differentiated from those whose experience is limited to growth cycles.
The outlook for Q2 2026 is one of carefully managed caution, with selective opportunity for executives who have positioned themselves ahead of the structural shifts now accelerating under pressure. Those who will make ground are those who have moved beyond waiting for stability and are operating effectively within current conditions.
As the pace of change accelerates, every executive must think seriously about how to stay relevant, maintain credibility and secure a strong executive trajectory in today’s market. This requires both core leadership capability and continued development of AI and digital fluency.
For those assessing their next move or preparing for an executive transition, understanding these global dynamics is critical. Rialto supports senior leaders in navigating these shifts and positioning for long-term success. Executives are also invited to join the Rialto AI Business Leaders Circle, providing access to strategic insights, expert briefings and policy-level discussions shaping the future of AI.
To find out more, book an appointment to speak to one of our team today.
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