In our Q1, 2026 executive outlook for the United States, Asia, and the Middle East and North Africa, we look at economic forecasts across these critical markets, executive hiring dynamics and the capabilities commanding premiums in an increasingly selective global landscape. The briefing finds divergent growth patterns, sector-specific opportunities and persistent demand for transformation leadership within a more general theme of hiring caution.
GDP growth of 2.1-2.2% is predicted for 2026, reflecting modest expansion by historical standards, tempered by trade policy uncertainty and constrained labour supply from restrictive immigration and demographic shifts.
Manufacturing is projected to rebound gradually as automation, AI and reshoring initiatives improve productivity.
The technology sector is anticipated to lead growth, driven by expanding demand for AI applications, cloud infrastructure, semiconductors and cybersecurity services, reinforcing tech’s role as a primary investment and employment engine.
Healthcare and biotech are forecast to continue expanding due to aging demographics, digital health tools and AI-enabled diagnostics, despite cost pressures and regulatory complexity.
In retail and consumer goods, companies are prioritising omnichannel strategies, logistics efficiency and personalisation to adapt to cautious but resilient consumer spending patterns.
The energy sector is undergoing structural change as electricity demand rises and renewable generation grows, while oil and gas firms face price volatility and capital discipline pressures
Financial services and M&A activity are expected to strengthen as easing capital constraints and AI-driven analytics support dealmaking and consolidation.
The labour market presents a stark contrast to economic growth. US employers added just 50,000 jobs in December 2025, bringing total 2025 payroll gains to 584,000, marking the weakest year of job growth since 2003 outside recessions. This compares to 2 million jobs added in 2024.
The disconnect between GDP growth and weak employment reflects ongoing productivity acceleration, much of it attributed to AI adoption.
The Federal Reserve is seeking to freeze interest rates at 3.75% for the immediate future – in the face of pressure for cuts from the White House. Inflation trends and the Fed’s approach to returning to its 2% target will shape the near-term economic environment if it is able to retain its independence. Economists fear Donald Trump’s pressure to keep slashing interest rates could heat up inflation again.
For executives, the US market presents constrained hiring. Leaders must recalibrate growth narratives toward operational efficiency, profitability and demand modelling. Capability-driven hiring – skills in AI governance, transformation leadership and resilience planning – is disproportionately valued as overall headcount budgets face pressure. Risk governance in navigating federal policy shifts around trade, immigration and tax will be essential. Cross-sector mobility and skill transferability, particularly across tech, healthcare and advanced manufacturing, will enhance executive relevance.
As Trump seeks to expand US economic and geopolitical influence and push back on Chinese economic imperialism and Russian aggression, his threats of further tariffs and invasion of Greenland threaten to disrupt supply chains and diplomatic relations with key economic allies, especially in Europe.
Asia’s growth narrative in 2026 is likely to remain around 1-2% stronger than in advanced economies, though slowing down on 2025 and with significant differentiation across subregions. Technology-integrated economies such as South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Malaysia are poised to capture rewards from AI-related semiconductor demand, while non-tech exporters face headwinds from sluggish global trade.
China is predicted to see growth moderate to around 4.5% as it faces export costs, a weak property sector, falling consumption and investment challenges. Chinese exports have shown resilience despite US tariffs, having diversified across Asia and Africa. However, global trade growth is expected to slow sharply in 2026 as tariff impacts fully materialise. Executive demand in China concentrates on leaders who can navigate supply chain reconfiguration, manage export diversification and drive domestic consumption growth in the face of structural headwinds.
The Indian economy continues to expand with a healthy 7.4% predicted this year, beating even last year’s 6.8%, valuing it at $4.51 trillion by year end. However it faces growth risks from US tariffs, which increased form around 2.4% in 2024 to 20% last year. Inflation rates have been fluctuating between 0.7% and 2%.
India is seeing the rewards of early widespread AI adoption, with huge government training programmes, infrastructure and R&D investment creating a highly skilled workforce and an increasingly innovative environment. Expect to see India compete with China and the US in this domain.
Executive demand remains robust in infrastructure development, technology services and manufacturing as India positions itself as a viable alternative to China in that sector too.
Japan and South Korea present outlier status with accelerating growth driven by large fiscal stimulus packages that offset weaker export growth. AI infrastructure investment continues to flow. Executive demand concentrates on leaders who can deploy capital efficiently in semiconductor manufacturing, AI infrastructure and technology supply chain management.
Southeast Asian economies benefit from lower labour costs, geographic proximity to China and improved infrastructure, positioning them as alternative manufacturing hubs. However, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia face headwinds from weaker non-tech export demand and domestic political uncertainty. Executive roles increasingly focus on supply chain repositioning and manufacturing relocation from China.
Across Asia, rapid AI adoption and automation in advanced markets is changing value creation patterns and driving polarisation between high-skill and low-skill labour. Labour force participation rates among women and youth remain structural levers for growth. Leaders fluent in cross-market nuance, regulatory diversity and partner ecosystems will find premium opportunities. Executives must prioritise digital fluency, cross-cultural leadership and strategic workforce planning, while balancing speed of growth against economic, geopolitical and operational volatility.
The MENA region is projected to outperform global growth in 2026, with significant variation across markets. The Gulf states are seeing the fastest regional growth in part due to expansion in non-oil sectors including tourism and financial services and private sector investment flows.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar show momentum driven by infrastructure development, energy sector expansion and economic diversification efforts.
Executives targeting MENA markets must demonstrate capability in large-scale infrastructure delivery, navigate complex stakeholder environments across public and private sectors and possess genuine fluency in both traditional industries and emerging technology sectors. The region’s pace of transformation demands leaders who can operate across cultural contexts while driving execution at scale. Championing workforce inclusion as a growth strategy will be central as the region targets untapped potential among women currently outside the workforce.
The structural reset is global, not confined to a single national economy. Across the United States, Asia and MENA, the patterns are consistent: growth is modest but differentiated, labour markets are shifting toward strategic demand and leadership expectations are realigning around capability, adaptability and cultural fluency.
Cross-border capability commands premiums. With major economies implementing significant tariff regimes, executives who can navigate trade policy complexity, manage supply chain reconfiguration and maintain profitability amid shifting trade regimes are in high demand. This extends beyond traditional international roles to any leader managing supplier relationships or market access.
The outlook for Q1 2026 reveals a diverging market. While the UK and Europe navigate fiscal constraint with declining hiring and a shift toward interim fractional leadership, the US presents strong GDP growth coexisting with the weakest hiring since 2003.
Asia offers dynamic opportunities, with India’s growth and technology-driven demand in South Korea and Singapore creating genuine expansion appetite, though China’s structural imbalances require specialised navigation expertise.
MENA stands apart with diversification imperatives driving concentrated demand for large-scale project delivery and transformation leadership at compensation levels that reflect urgency.
The divergence creates distinct pathways. European executives face a market prioritising cost discipline and operational efficiency within modest growth parameters. Those targeting the US must demonstrate productivity gains through technology deployment while managing workforce reductions. Asia-focused leaders require cross-border regulatory fluency and the ability to navigate geopolitical complexity alongside rapid growth. MENA demands scale execution capability and public-private stakeholder management. Yet AI governance fluency and demonstrable impact have become universal executive requirements.
The executives who will thrive, then, are those who recognise these regional nuances while building the skills, credentials and narratives universal to all economies in this evolving and volatile landscape.
Here you can also find a briefing on the executive outlook for Q1 2026 in the UK and Europe.
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